THIS IS A LARGE SCALE OPERATIONAL DESIGN THAT CAN BE REPLICATED AT MULTIPLE SUB TROPICAL STRATEGIC REGIONAL LOCATIONS.
Currently we are reviewing the Complete Design, Build, Operate costs for a TBOS croping and Intercrop specific Biomass to Liquid, CHP and assoreted chemicals Biorefinery Technology. There is a good chance that the Capital cost will be somewhat lower than the $3.00 USD Billion Dollars suggested below.
While one can appreciate all of the global efforts to identify improved strains of Jatropha and methodologies to improve yield the hard fact of cultivation on non-food, marginal, semi arid, rain fed lands is that professional supported agricultural extension of some magnitude has to be managed efficiently to deliver harvest values to a Biorefinery designed to deliver "least Cost" substitutes for exceptionally low cost per unit liquid fuels, energy outputs/Kwh and useful chemicals (products) which can include medicinal inputs, bio plastics, resins etc etc.
While one can hold in high esteem the huge number of professionals and executives who support the promotion of Jatropha Curcas and other TBOS/Biomass opportunities that are targeted to assist the lives of the rural poor we should not be focused on supporting the sustainability of subsistence agriculture.
Professional large scale agricultural extension designed to cultivate, collect and produce desirable quality market demanded products can deliver immense benefits to the rural poor of the developing regions, improve food and fuel security, promote improved water management and above all allow the rural communities access to participate with a new industry model that can deliver sustainable improvements to life.
We are progressing the development of our model for Jatropha Curcas Linn towards being able to represent a complete industry model that can be replicated at strategic locations throughout the sub tropical regions.
We have now identified with the Agricultural extension, Biomass, Bio refinery and technology processes that can lead to the delivery of advanced liquid fuels and CHP operations, for export and national markets, as well as additional value added commodity opportunities.
We can make the following assumptions with reasonable certainty.
• Professional large scale agricultural extension of JCL costs approximately $4000USD/Ha.
• One can expect, on rain fed marginal land, to obtain 40Mt of Biomass/Ha/p.a.( with professional support, moderate rain, deliberate organic fertilizer and plant growth promoters).
• If JCL is inter cropped with Castor about 6% of the biomass will be oil.
• There MAY BE no economic reason for extracting the oil (see below).
• Each Ha of harvest is equal to about 100,000 Kwh of energy. (Wet Biomass 55%moisture).
(1400 JCL trees/Ha + Castor) I am actually being quite stringent the Kwh value will be more.
• In direct electricity sales value this is equal to about $3,000USD, when local sales of electricity in Africa are about 3cts per Kwh.(They are much higher but this would be a fair net price for selling into the grid or getting standby Power Purchase agreement sales).
• If one extracts the oil (6%) the resulting value of the mix is Oil 23,712Kwh and Biomass 76,288Kwh.
• This is an insufficient ration for market value/ economic considerations. Ergo Oil Value (max) = $720USD Biomass $2288.64 Total added value $3008.64.
• Using advanced biomass technology the energy ratio can be changed and market values modified accordingly.
• Energy is introduced (20% of the Biomass value 20,000KwH) in order to reform the biomass into 60% bio oil 20% syngas and 20% char. (Syngas used to run the complete system to all advanced out puts including bio Jet Fuel).
• New balance is 80,000Kwh of which 48,000Kwh is Bio oil and the remaining Char + other elements 32,000Kwh.
• The bio oil/advanced liquid fuel is worth about 6.5cts per Kwh while the Char+ is still worth about 3cts/Kwh.
• Ergo we have increased the market values for the products (value added) from $3000USD to $4080. (This is still per Ha of value)
• Over time crude oil prices will rise above an average of 82USD per barrel and this would cause the market value per Kwh to shift accordingly. NB: The market values of CJO are no more than $360USD for export while the value of Bio Oil/advance liquid fuel is $650 USD FOB as direct export or fuel to use.(August 2009).
• Modification to Bio oil/advanced liquid fuel per Mt is part of the overall technology platform and part of the 20% syngas energy use (costs).
• How much should one pay the farmer for the Biomass at farm gate? Well a Fair-trade price would be $40USD/Mt or $1600USD per average Ha of Biomass yield.
• Hence the overall market value gain farm gate to wholesale of primary commodities is $2480 per Ha of cultivation.
• It costs $120,000Million to professionally cultivate 30,000Ha's of Jatropha until first harvest of Biomass. ($4000/Ha).
• Financed by special Micro Finance Program. First harvest (2nd year) costs $48,000,000 to purchase from farmers.
• It may cost up to $3.0 Billion to establish the complete Technology Platform. (30 year + Life span).(PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS).
• And $1.2 Billion for Agricultural extension. (3000,000 Ha’s over ten years) +50 year life span.
• Agriculture to Industry and market delivery process value adds $74,400,000 per 30,000Ha/p.a. (Following on from the first harvest opportunity)
• After ten years of professional agricultural extension $744,400,000 per 300,000/Ha/p.a.
• $4.092 Billion is the company operational value added after 10 Years processing operations and 12 years of activity (Projected 2 years build up of complete platform).
o Ergo this is 55 Harvests of 30,000Ha’s that deliver $74,400,000 as Value added).
•The complete Agricultural extension to first harvest and processing opportunity would be
o 2x 120,000,000 million = $240,000,000Million of Agricultural Extension Costs.
o $3Billion for the complete Harvest Collection and process to CHP and Bio oil/Advanced liquid fuels.
o $48,000,000 Million for first harvest purchase value.
Total establishment to first process opportunity $3.288 Billion.
• Operational platform Costs $3.0 Billion + Loan/Cost of Finance ((Say 7% as soft loan value)).
• Agricultural farm gate value added $2.64 Billion after ten years harvest purchases. (Costs 1.2 Billion of Micro Finance, Repaid after the first 4 years of operating each Ha).
• As the last Micro Finance would be paid off after the end of 15 years we should consider extending the overall project forecasts up to 20 years.
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